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Showing posts with label Ukraine trident valuation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ukraine trident valuation. Show all posts

Sunday, 24 February 2013

Stamps of Ukraine: Valuing and Pricing - Seichter, Bulat and the Future

How much are classic Ukrainian stamps worth and what should we pay for them?

Most serious collectors now start from John Bulat's Catalogue, published in 2003 but based on a manuscript worked on for decades previously. Leave aside the many typographical errors and there are three main areas worth thinking about.

First, the very different treatment of Trident overprints and West Ukraine overprints.

For Tridents, excepting one or two isolated instances which may be mistakes, Bulat goes up to valuations of $300 after which he makes frequent use of the - - system to signal "Too Rare to Call". Bulat's[ $ ]300 is simply Dr Seichter's top value of 600 [ DM ] in his 1966 Sonder-Katalog, divided by two. After that, Seichter also uses the - - system.

But for West Ukraine, Bulat goes up to $30 000 and makes very little use of the - - system.

Now if we simplify and reckon Bulat's lowest price as $1 for both Ukraine and West Ukraine, we have a range for West Ukraine 100 times wider than for the Tridents.(* See footnote) Why? It's certainly not because of rarity: many Tridents are as rare as the rare stamps of West Ukraine. It's certainly not to do with marking down "philatelic" productions - with the exception of the Kolomyia Registration stamps, the stamps of Western Ukraine are all philatelic productions.  It does have a lot to do with prices which can be achieved: Bulat's $30 000 was comfortably exceeded in the Zelonka sale for the stamp to which it relates (Bulat # 65) and no Trident stamp has recently sold in widely-advertised auctions for even 10% of that and very few for more than 1%.

As far as Tridents are concerned, the current position is very much like that for Zemstvos before the Fabergé sale of 1999. Before then, no one would pay more than a few hundred dollars for a single Zemstvo stamp. That ceiling has now been completely removed. The Trident situation will only change when collectors realise that the ranges 1 - 300 and 1 - 30 000 are pretty much self-fulfilling prophecies.

Second, the validity of relative valuations

In valuing Tridents, Bulat closely follows Seichter, generally dividing by two. Now Dr Seichter was valuing Tridents as far back as 1940 when he published his Spezialliste der Briefmarken der Ukrainischen Volksrepublik. Basically, the relative valuations we use were established over 70 years ago. That means that they take no account of (1) destruction and loss, which is never even-handed, whether it results from war, flood, fire or collector carelessness; (2) discoveries in archives or dealer remainder stocks or collector hoards - things which are also not likely to be balanced. As a result, we all have the experience of being able to obtain stamps with high Bulat valuations quite easily and other ones with low valuations with great difficulty. After 70 years, it is time to examine the relative valuations again. To give just one example, though the Zelonka sale has released some onto the market, just try finding the Kyiv 1 Special Types (Bulat 109 - 45) even those with valuations below $10. (And just in case you ask, I have none in stock).

Third, the relation of a Bulat $ to an actual price

Here there seems to be a divergence between Europe and the USA. When we are talking about individual Retail prices (for example, for stamps on a Wants List), American collectors are still hoping to pay about 50 cents for a Bulat dollar and sometimes they may find stamps at that price. Collectors in Europe are willing to pay more - a dollar or sometimes a €uro for a Bulat dollar - and so in Auction they are more likely to take the choice items. In my experience, most of the really common stamps (under 50 cents in Bulat) remain so common that no one should pay more than ten or twenty cents for them. But once you get above something like Bulat $10, there are many hundreds of listed stamps which are actually quite hard to find and where a real dollar for a Bulat dollar is a bargain.

__________
* Bulat goes down to 10 cents for Tridents and 25 cents for Western Ukraine, so technically the range is much wider. (I am struggling with the maths!)

Added February 2020: Most of my Ukraine-related Blog posts are now available in full colour book form. To find out more follow the link:


Saturday, 30 June 2012

Ukraine Poltava Tridents: Bulat 971




If you are a Ukraine Trident collector, please ask yourself: What is a fair market price for this Block 4 used stamps, 1 rouble imperforate with Poltava Type I Trident in violet, not expertised but genuine and without punch-holes. Don't look at the answer just yet! When you start reading, remember to multiply by four to check whether you valued this block correctly!

MICHEL
Until recently, the Michel catalogue had a well-organised, compact Ukraine listing based on the work of Dr Seichter. Unfortunately, some Idiot decided to remove Seichter's work and replace it with a completely useless list. In the 2010/11 catalogue, the stamps above would count as # 39 valued "for the cheapest sort" at 0.20 €uro

YVERT et TELLIER
I only have an Yvert because someone gave it to me. I often think it is the world's worst catalogue. My Yvert 2003 lists this stamp, with Type I overprint, as 34g - which does not distinguish between black and violet overprints - and values it at 0.75 €uro

SCOTT
Runner up for the world's worst catalogue? I threw away the last one I had so I don't know what it says.

STANLEY GIBBONS
The 2008 Russia Specialised catalogue does distinguish between violet and black overprints, though not between Type I and Type II. The stamps above are listed as L341 at £33 [ about 40 €uro ] each. With Black overprint, the value is just £1

DR SEICHTER
In his 1966 Sonderkatalog, Dr Seichter lists this stamp (Type I with violet overprint) and values it at 80 Deutschmarks in used condition. In his Introduction to the 1998 American edition, Ingert Kuzych advises multiplying Seichter's DM figures by 0.33 to get a current US $ valuation, so about $26 for this stamp.

JOHN BULAT
This stamp is # 971 in Bulat's 2003 catalogue where it is valued at $5.00. This is, in fact, one of the numerous typographical errors in the book. Bulat generally divides Seichter's figures by about two to get his own valuations, but he sometimes adds a bit. Bulat had a special interest in Poltava tridents, and would more likely go up a bit on Seichter than go down. So I reckon the $5.00 is a misprint for $50.00. Bulat values the more common variety, with the Type I overprint in black, at $10 but here there is probably another misprint: Seichter values the black version at just 3 DM so even if Bulat went up we would be looking at $4 or $5.

RESULT?
This stamp with Black Type I overprint is common. I have handled lots and priced them at 1 to 5 €uros each depending on whether there is a legible date cancel or not and on whether there are punch holes (many, maybe most are punch-holed).
With violet overprint, this is a scarce stamp. Seichter rates it at 80 compared to his 3 for the black overpint. That's a big differential, reflecting the fact that in Poltava, Rouble value stamps normally have a Black Trident overprint just as kopeck values normally have a Violet one.

I think both Dr Seichter and Gibbons are in the right zone. Bulat 971 must be worth around 20 - 30 €uro each and so this block of 4 would be reasonably priced at 100 €uro to reflect its interest as a block 4 with complete cancellation (I think it's postally used - the back is a bit messy).

Am I right? What do other catalogues say?

For the moment, the real problem Trident collectors and dealers face is having to check Bulat against Dr Seichter to make sure they are not just dealing with a typographical error.


Added February 2020: Most of my Ukraine-related Blog posts are now available in full colour book form. To find out more follow the link: